Old Conflict, New Theories: Pastoral and Agrarian Violence in Northern Nigeria

Abstract

Until lately, Nigeria’s major security challenge has mainly been defined by the virulent Islamist Boko Haram violence. Pastoral/agrarian feud symbolized by the intense violence between the Fulani herdsmen and farming communities across Nigeria has, however, heightened the country’s security nightmare. As old as the violence is, occurring however amidst intense polarization among the Nigerian groups, and Boko Haram insurgency, viewed in some quarters as more political than religious, the pastoralist/agrarian violence lends itself to new theories- all of which are rooted within the broader frameworks of political economy, power, political Islam/Islamism and conspiracy theories. Within the political economy framework are, one, perspectives that explore the southward movement of herdsmen from the northern- most part of Nigeria in search of grazing lands for their livestock amidst climate change effects; and two, those that deal with the appropriation by farmers of originally-designated grazing lands owing to population explosion and other factors. An ancillary to the political economy perspective is the power theory, which attempts to locate the problem in a power struggle among Nigeria’s political actors. This perspective views the violence as embodying schemes by some political forces to decimate ahead of the 2015 elections, the population of the North-Central region, especially its Christians, from whom former President Goodluck Jonathan enjoyed immense support in the 2011 presidential polls. The political Islam/Islamist theory deals with the resuscitation of the 18th-century jihad initiated by the progenitor of the contemporary Fulani, Usman dan Fodio. According to this perspective, Dan Fodio’s descendants are merely attempting to bring to its logical conclusion their progenitor’s ambition to enthrone an Islamic theocracy on the whole of Nigeria - the notion of dipping the Koran in the sea. A sub-theme of the theory holds that, unlike their fore-runner jihadists, who focused on creating a political kingdom, which could co-exist with the secular state, militant Islamists are out to violently impose a theocratic state with a full Sharia system. The conspiracy theory argues that the violence is part of an insidious agenda by envious southerners to balkanize and weaken ‘Northern Nigeria’. The study explores these theories with a view that it will not only help in halting the current national polarization but also address the age-long pastoral/agrarian violence in Nigeria. The perspective that views the violence in terms of an Islamization agenda, however, is gaining currency in Nigeria.